衡水市农户土地资源转出意愿的影响因素与行政干预

[目的]通过了解河北省衡水市农户土地转出的意愿状况,分析影响农户土地资源转出意愿的关键因素,并制定正确的战略决策,为构建农地适度规模化经营奠定理论基础,促进衡水市农民的现代化发展。[方法]文章结合调研情况,对样本区农户土地使用权流转行为进行了统计描述和分析研究,并运用Logistic模型对农户土地使用权转出意愿的影响因素进行了分析,找到了影响衡水市土地流转的关键性因素。[结果]研究表明,户主年龄、从事职业和文化程度、农户家庭非农收入以及农户家庭兼业人数等与农户土地转出意愿呈显著正相关关系,显著性数值分别为0. 018、0. 000、0. 010、0. 000、0. 028,而农户家庭农用机械数量则与农户土地转出意愿呈显著负相关关系,显著性数值为0. 033。此外农户社会保障程度和农户对政府土地流转的相关政策了解程度等因素也影响着农户土地流转的意愿。[结论]影响农户土地转出意愿的显著性因素包括家庭非农收入、户主年龄和职业;另外,户主的年龄、职业、文化程度、非农收入、家庭兼业人数和农用机械数量均是影响农户土地转出意愿的重要内容。     

长三角港口腹地动态演变及耦合协调度研究

明确港口腹地演变趋势、分析港腹耦合协调度,对长三角地区港腹联动发展具有重要意义。量化港口系统—腹地系统综合指标评价体系,运用高斯烟羽模型在2006、2011、2016年3个时间节点上测算长三角地区主要港口影响强度,并对腹地范围进行划分,利用耦合协调模型定量分析港口系统和直接腹地经济系统耦合协调度。研究结果表明:长三角地区港口呈现"一超多强"的格局,以上海港为中心,各港口多极发展;港口腹地范围整体稳定,局部波动,上海港的边缘腹地不断缩减;港口与腹地的耦合协调度处于上升态势,宁波—舟山港腹耦合协调度最高。     

Does computer penetration increase farmers’ income? An empirical study from China

The diffusion and adoption of modern information technology provide new chance for China to close urban-rural income gap. This paper uses China's provincial panel data from 2002 to 2013 to investigate the effect of computer penetration on rural residents' income. A public program aiming to connect every village with broadband Internet and other rural facilities provides plausibly exogenous variation in rural residents' availability and adoption of the broadband Internet, which is used to explore the instrument variable for rural computer penetration. The results show that rural computer penetration tends to increase rural residents' income over time, but the average effect remains limited. The dynamic panel threshold effects model, which allows for both the threshold variable and other covariates to be endogenous, is further used to explore the constraints of the income-increase effect of rural computer penetration. It shows that the effect is at least doubled over the average effect estimated from instrument variables method, once the digital divide causes are removed. Our findings have important implications for the government to increase rural residents' income and reduce urban-rural income gap by encouraging rural computer usage and removing the digital divide.     

普惠金融发展的地区差异、收敛性及影响因素研究*——基于中国省级面板数据的检验

本文利用2005—2016年省级面板数据，对我国各地区普惠金融发展水平进行测度，并在此基础上探讨其收敛性及影响因素。结果表明：（1）我国普惠金融发展水平在考察期内总体偏低，并且呈现出显著的地区差异性。（2）绝对β收敛在全国、中部和西部均存在，而东部不存在；条件β收敛在全国、东部和西部均存在，而中部不存在。（3）政府干预程度、市场化程度、人力资本质量、非正规金融以及外商直接投资对普惠金融发展均具有重要的影响。     

Data-based mechanistic modelling and forecasting globally averaged surface temperature

The main objective of this paper it to model the dynamic relationship between global averaged measures of Total Radiative Forcing (RTF) and surface temperature, measured by the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA), and then use this model to forecast the GTA. The analysis utilizes the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) approach to the modelling and forecasting where, in this application, the unobserved component model includes a novel hybrid Box-Jenkins stochastic model in which the relationship between RTF and GTA is based on a continuous time transfer function (differential equation) model. This model then provides the basis for short term, inter-annual to decadal, forecasting of the GTA, using a transfer function form of the Kalman Filter, which produces a good prediction of the ‘pause’ or ‘levelling’ in the temperature rise over the period 2000 to 2011. This derives in part from the effects of a quasi-periodic component that is modelled and forecast by a Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) relationship and is shown to be correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index.     

Political Economy of Regional Integration: The Northeast Asian Model Revisited

It is found that the intra-regional trade share or functional integration plays an important role in the institutionalization of regional integration not only in the European Union (EU) but also in Northeast Asia. The crisis factor, which is measured by the regional economic growth rates, is empirically significant in Northeast Asia but not in the EU. This situation confirms the crisis model for Northeast Asia that emphasizes the stimulating role of crisis for the institutionalization of regional integration. However, the political leadership factor is not empirically significant in Northeast Asia and in the EU, and this finding does not support the political leadership model that emphasizes the facilitating role of political leadership for the institutionalization of regional integration.     

Factors affecting agricultural land transfer-in in China: a semiparametric analysis

We use interview survey data collected randomly from 2677 farm households in nine provinces of China to understand the role of demographic, economic, land, and village characteristics on agricultural land transfer-in by farmers. Results show that variables such as borrowing from informal sources, household labour availability, percentage of total income from agricultural sources, and the household with village cadre have significant positive effects on land transfer-in. Low economic development and low transportation network availability in a county reduces land transfer-in. We also find that two variables (land holding and land idling) should be entered into the model nonparametrically. Land holding and land idling have U- and L-shaped impacts on land transfer-in, respectively. Land transfer-in has endowment equilibrium and provides Chinese households more opportunities to earn agricultural income, thereby reducing rural poverty.     

农户减少化肥用量和采用有机肥的意愿研究——基于洱海流域上游面源污染防控的视角

[目的]过量施用化肥导致水体富营养化是造成洱海流域上游面源污染的主要原因之一,调查分析农户减少化肥用量和采用有机肥的意愿有助于了解其调整施肥结构的行为。当前研究忽视了农户减少化肥施用强度和采用有机肥的意愿间的替代性,未能开展联立研究。[方法]基于洱海流域上游397个水稻种植户的问卷调查数据,通过Bivariate-Probit模型对农户减少化肥用量和采用有机肥两种意愿进行分析。[结果]年龄负向影响农户减少化肥量的意愿,农户对有机肥好处的认知正向影响其减少化肥量的意愿,农户参加农业社会化服务对其减少化肥用量和采用有机肥的意愿均产生正向影响,相比之下,对农户采用有机肥意愿的促进作用更大。[结论]引导农户参加农业社会化服务以及加强宣传和培训,提高农户对有机肥作用的认知可能是加强其减少化肥用量和增加有机肥施用量意愿的有效途径。     

生态旅游视域下的岷江上游贫困山区生态安全评价

[目的]构建科学合理的评价指标体系,准确评价生态旅游影响下的区域生态安全状况,是推动少数民族山区实现旅游资源环境与区域社会、经济协同发展的前提和基础。[方法]以岷江上游贫困山区为例,应用灰色系统理论与熵值赋权法相结合,基于压力—状态—响应模型,构建生态旅游视域下的区域生态安全评估指标体系,并将评估指数与经济收入状况及贫困人口分布进行空间耦合。[结果](1)区域当前处于较安全水平,生态旅游开发适度;(2)综合评估指数与城镇居民可支配收入增长率、旅游收入对国民经济增长的贡献率呈正相关,且城镇居民在旅游开发中受益与机会较农牧民多;(3)综合评估指数与贫困人口比重呈负相关,与农牧民纯收入增长率没有必然联系。[结论]区域脱贫能够改善当地的生态安全状况,适度生态旅游开发是区域脱贫的有效手段,但应注重扶持农牧民在旅游业中的参与度,增加其旅游收益。     

Winning us with trifles: Adverse selection in the use of philanthropy as insurance

Research Summary: We study the use of corporate philanthropy as a form of reputation insurance, developing a formal model of such insurance to examine how the terms of insurance in equilibrium change under different assumptions about the firm and its stakeholders. We then test the predictions from this model in the U.S. petroleum industry and find that philanthropic donations offer insurance‐like benefits, but are also positively associated with subsequent oil spills—firms that give more, spill more—with this association being stronger for spills that are under firms’ control and in states with low civic capacity. These results are consistent with an adverse selection/moral hazard equilibrium and suggest that the use of philanthropy as reputation insurance may benefit firms at the cost of society. Managerial Summary: Firms that donate to social causes develop a reputation for being socially responsible, and are often given the benefit of doubt when negative information about them comes to light. But are philanthropic firms truly more responsible? We argue that firms that donate more may be more likely to do harm—those that expect to do harm later are likely to give more now, and those that know their reputation protects them may become less careful. Evidence from the U.S. petroleum industry is consistent with this argument, with firms that give more having more subsequent oil spills, but only the type of spills that are under the firm's control, and only in states where the firm faces weaker scrutiny.